The need to reduce the pollution that causes global warming is clear — and urgent. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of the world's leading climate scientists, it is more than 90% certain that the past half-century's global warming was mostly due to human activities. The IPCC has concluded that if no action is taken to reduce global warming emissions, the global average surface temperature is likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C over the next 100 years. The impacts of this temperature increase could be devastating — and possibly irreversible.

In British Columbia, some impacts from global warming are already visible. Much worse is forecast if emissions are not reduced. Salmon populations will be endangered due to warmer water temperatures and changing river flow patterns. Forests will be increasingly vulnerable to insect and disease outbreaks. Glaciers in the southern part of the province will continue to retreat.

Recognizing the dangers of global warming, in 2007 the British Columbia government legislated targets to reduce the province's greenhouse gas pollution by at least 33% below the 2007 level by 2020, and to 80% below the 2007 level by 2050. These targets represent a major step forward in combating climate change.

However, the hardest work is yet to be done. To meet the 2020 target, at least 36 million tonnes of annual emissions will need to be cut. British Columbia will need to make changes across all sectors.

For more information about global warming, visit the Pembina Institute Climate Change website.

Mind the Gap: A Blueprint for Climate Action in British Columbia

The Pembina Institute's Mind the Gap report frames the challenge British Columbia faces to meet the provincial target of reducing annual greenhouse gas pollution 33% by 2020. The report estimates the emission reductions that will be achieved by the provincial government's recent policy announcements, and then analyzes additional opportunities to reduce emissions. It examines potential actions in six sectors: business and industry; oil and gas; personal transportation; homes and buildings; waste and agriculture; and electricity. The report includes recommendations on policies that will help British Columbia make the major changes needed to meet the 2020 target.

Cap and Trade: Reducing Pollution, Inspiring Innovation

Currently, the British Columbia government and its partners in the Western Climate Initiative, including the province of Manitoba and seven U.S. states, are designing a system that puts a cap on global warming emissions and allows trading of emission permits. A well designed "cap and trade" system could help greatly reduce British Columbia's greenhouse gas pollution, while keeping the economy and communities strong. However, if the emissions cap is weak or the trading system contains loopholes, British Columbia would miss a major opportunity to reduce its global warming emissions.

A new report by the Pembina Institute, Cap and Trade: Reducing Pollution, Inspiring Innovation, explains how cap and trade systems work and offers recommendations for the design of a robust and effective system for British Columbia. The recommendations include:

• Set a cap that is at least 33% below 2007 pollution levels by 2020.

• Include large industry and aviation, at a minimum, in the system. (These sectors account for about 40% of British Columbia's greenhouse gas pollution.)

• Put all of the emission permits up for auction, in keeping with the "polluter pays" principle.
• Limit the use of offsets, and avoid setting price caps, to maintain the integrity of the system.

The Cap and Trade report, along with the summary fact sheet "Cap and Trade: Tackling 40% of British Columbia's Global Warming Emissions" are the first in a series that will explore global warming solutions for British Columbia. Please check our website regularly for new additions to the series.